Age-specific transmission dynamics under suppression control measures during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic.

BACKGROUND: From March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (Rt) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated with next generation matrix. RESULTS: R0 of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, Rt had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50-59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%). CONCLUSIONS: The Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40-59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40-59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: We did not involve clinical trial.

Quantitative assessment of the effects of massive nucleic acid testing in controlling a COVID-19 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: From 20 July to 26 August 2021, local outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in Nanjing City and Yangzhou City (Jiangsu Province, China). We analyzed the characteristics of these outbreaks in an effort to develop specific and effective intervention strategies. METHODS: Publicly available data on the characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreaks in Jiangsu Province were collected. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of age and sex with clinical severity. Analysis of onset dates, generation time distributions, and locations were used to estimate the mean transmission distance. A branching process model was used to evaluate different management strategies. RESULTS: From 20 July to 26 August 2021, 820 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, with 235 patients (28.7%) from Nanjing, 570 (69.5%) from Yangzhou, and 15 (1.8%) from other cities. Overall, 57.9% of the patients were female, 13.7% were under 20 years-old, and 58.3% had moderate disease status. The mean transmission distance was 4.12 km, and closed-loop management of the area within 2.23 km of cases seemed sufficient to control an outbreak. The model predicted that the cumulative cases in Yangzhou would increase from 311 to 642 if the interval between rounds of nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) increased from 1 to 6 days. It also predicted there would be 44.7% more patients if the NAAT started 10 days (rather than 0 days) after diagnosis of the first case. The proportion of cases detected by NAAT would increase from 11.16 to 44.12% when the rounds of NAAT increased from 1 to 7 within 17 days. When the effective vaccine coverage was 50%, the outbreak would be controlled even when using the most relaxed non-pharmaceutical interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The model predicted that a timely closed-loop management of a 2.23 km area around positive COVID-19 cases was sufficient to control the outbreak. Prompt serial NAAT is likely to contain an outbreak quickly, and our model results indicated that three rounds of NAAT sufficiently controlled local transmission. Trial registration We did not involve clinical trial.

Vaccination as an alternative to non-drug interventions to prevent local resurgence of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: While a COVID-19 vaccine protects people from serious illness and death, it remains a concern when and how to lift the high-cost and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). This study examined the joint effect of vaccine coverage and NPIs on the control of local and sporadic resurgence of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: Between July 2021 and January 2022, we collected the large-scale testing information and case number of imported COVID-19 patients from the website of the National Health Commission of China. A compartment model was developed to identify the level of vaccine coverage that would allow safe relaxation of NPIs, and vaccination strategies that can best achieve this level of coverage. We applied Monte Carlo simulation 50 000 times to remove random fluctuation effects and obtain fitted/predicted epidemic curve based on various parameters with 95% confidence interval at each time point. RESULTS: We found that a vaccination coverage of 50.4% was needed for the safe relaxation of NPIs, if the vaccine effectiveness was 79.3%. The total number of incidence cases under the key groups firstly strategy was 103 times higher than that of accelerated vaccination strategy. It needed 35 months to fully relax NPIs if the key groups firstly strategy was implemented, and 27 months were needed with the accelerated vaccination strategy. If combined the two strategies, only 8 months are needed to achieve the vaccine coverage threshold for the fully relaxation of NPIs. Sensitivity analyses results shown that the higher the transmission rate of the virus and the lower annual vaccine supply, the more difficult the epidemic could be under control. When the transmission rate increased 25% or the vaccination effectiveness rate decreased 20%, 33 months were needed to reduce the number of total incidence cases below 1000. CONCLUSIONS: As vaccine coverage improves, the NPIs can be gradually relaxed. Until that threshold is reached, however, strict NPIs are still needed to control the epidemic. The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant led to higher resurgence probability, which indicates the importance of accelerated vaccination and achieving the vaccine coverage earlier.

Factors That Impact Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccination in Different Community-Dwelling Populations in China.

(1) Background: It is important to improve vaccination strategies and immunization programs to achieve herd immunity to infectious diseases. (2) Methods: To assess the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination, we conducted face-to-face surveys and online surveys in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Qinghai provinces. A fixed-effect model and a random effects model were used to analyze factors associated with the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination. (3) Findings: We initially recruited 3173 participants, 3172 participants completed the full questionnaire (the response rate was nearly 100%), of which 2169 were valid questionnaires, with an effective rate of 87.3%. The results indicated that 82.6% of participants were willing to receive vaccination when it was available in the community, and 57.2% of deliverymen, 43.3% of medical workers, 78.2% of parents of primary and secondary school children, and 72.2% of parents of preschool children were willing to receive vaccination. The models showed that participants who were male (female vs. male: OR = 1.49, 95% CI (1.12, 1.98)), 60 to 69 years-old (60-69 vs. <30: OR = 0.52, 95% CI (0.29, 0.92)), had less education (medium vs. low: OR = 1.50, 95% CI (1.05, 2.23)), had good health status (good vs. low: OR = 0.36, 95% CI (0.15, 0.88)), and had positive attitudes and trust (OR = 0.14, 95% CI (0.10, 0.20)) in vaccines approved by the National Health Commission were more likely to accept vaccination. Participants also had an increased vaccination acceptance if it was recommended by government sources, doctors, relatives, or friends. Most participants learned about COVID-19 vaccination from television, radio, and newspapers, followed by community or hospital campaigns and the internet. (4) Conclusions: Government sources and doctors could increase the acceptance of vaccination by promoting the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccination by the use of mass media and emphasizing the necessity of vaccination for everyone.

Risks, characteristics, and control strategies of disinfection-residual-bacteria (DRB) from the perspective of microbial community structure.

The epidemic of COVID-19 has aroused people's particular attention to biosafety. A growing number of disinfection products have been consumed during this period. However, the flaw of disinfection has not received enough attention, especially in water treatment processes. While cutting down the quantity of microorganisms, disinfection processes exert a considerable selection effect on bacteria and thus reshape the microbial community structure to a great extent, causing the problem of disinfection-residual-bacteria (DRB). These systematic and profound changes could lead to the shift in regrowth potential, bio fouling potential, as well as antibiotic resistance level and might cause a series of potential risks. In this review, we collected and summarized the data from the literature in recent 10 years about the microbial community structure shifting of natural water or wastewater in full-scale treatment plants caused by disinfection. Based on these data, typical DRB with the most reporting frequency after disinfection by chlorine-containing disinfectants, ozone disinfection, and ultraviolet disinfection were identified and summarized, which were the bacteria with a relative abundance of over 5% in the residual bacteria community and the bacteria with an increasing rate of relative abundance over 100% after disinfection. Furthermore, the phylogenic relationship and potential risks of these typical DRB were also analyzed. Twelve out of fifteen typical DRB genera contain pathogenic strains, and many were reported of great secretion ability. Pseudomonas and Acinetobacter possess multiple disinfection resistance and could be considered as model bacteria in future studies of disinfection. We also discussed the growth, secretion, and antibiotic resistance characteristics of DRB, as well as possible control strategies. The DRB phenomenon is not limited to water treatment but also exists in the air and solid disinfection processes, which need more attention and more profound research, especially in the period of COVID-19.